NASA Issued An Alert of Time Of Arrival of CME - X-Class Flare and the other Flares - Magnetosphere Stand Off Information

UPDATE 2/17/11 8:17pm est - NASA is now saying the CME and X Class Flare missed us.  

UPDATE 2/17/11 - 8:30 - Spaceweather has an opposite statement - they said to expect the CME tonight! 

UPDATE - NASA has said Electrical Grids, Radio and Satellites may be disrupted over the next few days due to the incoming CME and the Flares.

http://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080/IswaSystemWebApp/index.jsp?clear=1

NASA has released what they believe will be the arrival of the CME and X class flares along with the other flares.

On this site - if the link does not automatically go to the "alert" tab - then please press on that, to see NASA's alert about the CME.

It is estimated on Feb 17th - 2:57 UTC time

 

http://www.worldtimeserver.com/current_time_in_UTC.aspx

If you are not sure of your time - the above link - 

So NASA has it arriving within 2 hours - they have it as a plus or minus 6 hours.  

Right now the magnetosphere is Clear - so it has not arrived.

http://www2.nict.go.jp/y/y223/simulation/realtime/index.html

But I did just look at it and it seems to be in the beginning stages of a flare about to hit.

This is an FYI - so, personally I will be unplugging electronics I am not use nor will use tonight and will watch our magnetic field to know when I need to unplug the rest.

Just something I wanted everyone to be aware.  

UPDATE 6:50 AM EST - The magnetosphere is clear and has been all night - so that means the U.S. will be sun facing today as when it hits.   

Well NASA was wrong about the arrival time

This means we who will be sun facing will have the effects of it, if any.  

The X Class Flare is stronger and faster so it will be catching up with the smaller flares of the same day.  

Those in the northern area, may even be able to see the aurora - but with the last X class flare people in Arizona saw Auroras too.  

Event Issue Date: 2011-02-15 05:47:44.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2011-02-17 02:57:50.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 6 hours
Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 5.5 R_e

_{Magnetosphere Stand off is expected at 5.5Re} 

_{Here is a graph showing stand off - that means the magnetic field will have basically no space between it and the Earth - due to the amount of pressure expected.} 

_{Stand off graph of Magnetosphere}

http://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080/IswaSystemWebApp/index.jsp?clear=1

the above site is absolutely fabulous - it has everything on it for the Earth and Sun with data and information about all the various aspects.  It is a place to keep bookmarked, for knowledge. 

Article from Vancouver Sun about CME and Flares.

http://www.vancouversun.com/technology/Huge+solar+flare+said+have+disrupted+China+communications/4298283/story.html

Portions

WASHINGTON -- The sun has unleashed its strongest flare in four years, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration said Wednesday, as astronomers in southern China reported disturbances to radio communications.

"X-class flares are the most powerful of all solar events that can trigger radio blackouts and long-lasting radiation storms," disturbing telecommunications and electric grids, NASA added.

In previous major disturbance of the Earth's electric grid from a solar incident, in 1973, a magnetic storm caused by a solar eruption plunged six million people into the dark in Quebec.