Saturday, January 21, 2012

Large M3 Solar Flare and Double CME arrival today. Electronics may be affected also large quakes possible due to pressure on Earth

Update - 2/23/11 - A large M8 Flare and CME occured Earth directed.  Expected to reach and impact Earth on 1/24/12 - Even Commercial flights will be rerouted due to it expected to be the strongest flare since 2005 to impact Earth.

Update at bottom - video of magnetic field getting hit by the flare and CME on 1/22/12

Even MSM has been "alerting" people about the CME expected today.

There was a large long lasting M3 Solar flare on the 19th of January.  The solar flare had a double CME (coronal mass ejection) with the flare and both are Earth directed.


Here is NASA's animation showing the CME and the Earth impact. 

Spaceweather has an alert on their site.

Analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab say strong geomagnetic storms are possible when the cloud arrives this weekend. Their animated forecast track predicts an impact on Jan. 21st at 22:30 UT (+/- 7 hrs). Aurora alerts: text, voice.
The cloud is also heading for Mars, due to hit the Red Planet on Jan. 24th. NASA's Curiosity rover, en route to Mars now, is equipped to study solar storms and might be able to detect a change in the energetic particle environment when the CME passes by.
Here is the "Alert" and time line by Integrated Space Weather:



You can see from above the CME impact on the Earth is expected to last almost 24 hours.

That means the Earth will have pressure on it for a very long time.  The magnetosphere has decreased in strength at about 25% over the last decades.

A couple of months ago Auroras were seen in the Southern states, I would expect this may happen again with this CME, due to Earth being in the bullseye of it.

Also last March there was an X flare the day before the Japanese quake on the 11th of March - here is the information on that from NASA:

Auroras Invade the US
03.11.11
UPDATE: Earth's magnetic field is still reverberating from a CME strike on March 10, 2011 which resulted in a G1-class geomagnetic storm. Northern Lights have rippling over the US-Canadian border into states such as Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Michigan. Solar wind conditions favor more geomagnetic storming in the hours ahead. Sky watchers, including those in the continental United States, should remain alert for auroras.
This shows the pressure on the Earth causes quakes.  There is a correlation between flares hitting the Earth and very large quakes happening.

With this double CME and long duration M3  flare,  I anticipate there may be a very large quake or two during or within a day or 2 after the flare impacts the Earth.

Here is where you can watch the magnetosphere while it is being impacted.

A site that has a huge amount of information and graphics on what is happening with the sun.
http://solarimg.org/artis/

Here is a video of the Solar Flare





Due to the CME - there may be interruptions in Cell phone service besides other electronics.  It will all depend on the  pressure on the Earth  and how close the magnetosphere lays down close to the Earth.  If the pressure is tremendous than the magnetosphere can even lay down where the satellites are.  The K factor graphs show that information which is available on the ARTIS site, besides others.

Watch the skies tonight and see if you can see Auroras.  Also it never hurts to make sure you know where your emergency supplies are for any reason.

UPDATE - Video of Magnetosphere getting hit by the flare and CME on 1/22/12





Update - 1/23/12 - Another large solar flare happened overnight - an M8 flare with a CME - it is Earth directed, but may go more North of the Earth.  

 ALMOST-X FLARE AND CME: This morning, Jan. 23rd around 0359 UT, big sunspot 1402 erupted, producing a long-duration M9-class solar flare. The explosion's M9-ranking puts it on the threshold of being an X-flare, the most powerful kind. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory captured the flare's extreme ultraviolet flash:
The Solar and Heliosphere Observatory (SOHO) and the STEREO-Behind spacecraft have both detected a CME rapidly emerging from the blast site. Analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab estimate a velocity of 2200 km. There is little doubt that the cloud is heading in the general direction of Earth. A preliminary inspection of SOHO/STEREO imagery suggests that the CME will deliver a strong glancing blow to Earth's magnetic field on Jan. 24-25 as it sails mostly north of our plane

1 comment:

  1. The strongest geomagnetic storm in more than six years was forecast to hit Earth's magnetic field Jan. 24, and it could affect airline routes, power grids and satellites, the U.S. Space Weather Prediction Center said.

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