X-Solar Flare/CME to hit Earth head on/directly tonight (7/13-14 /2012). Information and Links

 

Long duration X flare/CME 

UPDATE 7/14/12 10:30 AM - From Spaceweather - CME has not arrived yet - "Still Waiting"

STILL WAITING FOR THE CME: The CME launched toward Earth by the July 12th X-flare has not yet arrived. However, we are still within the forecast window set by analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab. The cloud should hit at 09:17 UT plus or minus 7 hours on Saturday, July 14th

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/solar-storm-incoming-federal-agencies-provide-inconsistent-confusing-information/2012/07/13/gJQAkm06hW_blog.html

NASA and NOAA are giving out different info about it. NASA saying it could affect our power grid, NOAA saying "No big deal." Also different times are being given. 

FYI - X-Flares travel much faster than other flares/CMEs, arrival time can be any where from tonight about 1 am to 6 am. 

There are some having cell phone difficulties today. The ionospheres of the planet are high right now, from the flare, though the actual flare/CME has not yet hit us. 

http://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080/IswaSystemWebApp/index.jsp?clear=1

that is a site - that has lots of info. Look under magnetosphere and you can watch the "stand off" and the magnetopause position movie to see what is happening. 

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/xray_5m.html

here is the chart for the x-flare - you can see it was a very long duration one, it was not quick. So it will affect us for quite some time.

http://www.spaceweather.com/

here it is saying it is moving faster than expected so arrival is 5:17 UT (which est is 4 hours earlier).

http://www.solarham.net/

a Good over all site.

Watch for very large quakes 6+ during and after the CME (coronal mass ejection - which is real fiery material the Sun has ejected).

Since it will be hitting in the middle of the night, you may want to un plug some of your electronics due to possible surges upon the electric grid from the magnetic.

Just something smart to do and it doesn't hurt to take precautions. 

Massive solar flares are sometimes associated with CMEs which can trigger geomagnetic storms that have been known to knock out electric power for extended periods of time. According to Matthew Stein, many hundred thousands of miles of high voltage lines would act like an antenna drawing the electro-magnetic pulse from a solar flare toward thousands of transformers on the world's power grids. Many transformers could burn out and be difficult to replace.


The soft X-ray flux of X class flares increases the ionization of the upper atmosphere, which can interfere with short-wave radio communication and can heat the outer atmosphere and thus increase the drag on low orbiting satellites, leading to orbital decay. Energetic particles in the magnetosphere contribute to the aurora borealis and aurora australis. Energy in the form of hard x-rays can be damaging to spacecraft electronics and are generally the result of large plasma ejection in the upper chromosphere.

It seems this x-flare is going to hit us straight on. We have not actually had a complete straight on hit for a very long time. We have had glancing blows where the majority of the x-flare/CME goes to the side or above or below us. 

There has been 7 X flares since 2000, they have all pretty much missed the Earth.

Watch for Auroras as far south as Alabama and Georgia etc. I may just get up in the middle of the night (but it is cloudy and suppose to stay raining here) to see if I can see any Auroras tonight. 

FYI - here is a copy of an email I sent out on March 9th 2011 to my list. (which the Japan Fukushima quake happened 2 days later right after the flare hit. Though it was not an absolute direct hit, it was a glancing blow. The worst part of the flare did not hit the Earth. 

we have had 11 M flares and now an X flare in two days, besides multiple C flares.

just something to be aware of.

We will be getting hit hard for days on our magnetic field. They have give out a warning to those in S. Africa to wear extra sunscreen due to radiation.

Thankfully the last X flare though Earth directed in the beginning went to the side of the Earth. The news said power outages could have been expected with a full head on hit.

Also I expect we will see large quakes due to the constant pressure on our magnetic field. Please understand our magnetic field is not what it used to be - 25% weaker.

Awareness is key. Everything is right in this link to watch (yes I have sent all these links previously, but doing it again so you don't have to look it up)

http://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080/IswaSystemWebApp/index.jsp?clear=1

- but a very good magnetic field

http://www2.nict.go.jp/y/y223/simulation/realtime/index.html

The link I put in of the magnetic field to watch it, is no longer available. The real-time index was taken down a few months ago for some reason. That was the only site that was trust worthy in my opinion to watch what was happening with the magnetosphere. Now the only way to view it is through NASA, which I don't trust NASA's information as being full truth. 

Anyway, doing as I always do.... just trying to inform people and give them information. Nothing to be afraid of, just the facts. So.. being aware is the key to knowing what is really going on.

Here is a video put out by Solarham of it.