UPDATE AUG 16TH - 8:21AM EST - There are 120 quakes on the map now. Tropical Storms Ana and Bill seem to be heading towards Puerto Rico. I contacted Lowell, asking him questions about it. Here is his reponse to me, via email:I will watch it carefully. It looks like Ana is being followed quickly by Bill. Both may hit PR or go to the north. If to the north the seismic effects would be muted and might even cause the current swarm to stop. The reason for this is the low pressures associated with the storm(s) will tend to allow the Atlantic seafloor to rise (because it is not being pushed down as much by the air). This would tend to lock the subduction zone and keep earthquakes from occurring. If the storm goes to the south the opposite could occur opening a possibility for a strong earthquake in the region. Lowell Whiteside PhD
UPDATE AUG 15TH 11:20PM EST - Latest Map of Puerto Rico
Another UPDATE AUG 15 - 2:02 PM EST
It Looks like Ana (a Tropical Storm right now) is going to go directly over Puerto Rico - expected there on Tuesday. This is what Lowell has said, could be the catalyst to a very large quake happening on the Trench.
Great site for tracking it: http://www.stormpulse.com/
UPDATE - AUG 15 - 5:56 AM EST There were over 25 more Earthquakes since I posted about Puerto Rico yesterday morning - now 102 Earthquakes show on the map.
Puerto Rico's Trench has gotten Very Active - in fact as of this moment there have been 76 quakes in one weeks time. They are getting larger too - high 3+ magnitudes and now High 4+ magnitudes are occurring. Earthquake experts have expectations of a Very Large quake happening there in the near future - where a possible Tsunami would ensue with it.
List of quakes on this map: from site: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsus/Maps/PR10/13.23.-71.-61_eqs.php
When the Puerto Rico Trench has had Large quakes in the past, Tsunami's have occurred with them.
I happen to know many people down there, as I used to live in the Virgin Islands and I would go to Puerto Rico on business many times a year. If you know people there, please make them aware of the quakes that are occurring and have them prepare emergency packs for them and their families. Hopefully they have some prepared already, due to Hurricanes possibly hitting. Awareness and preparation for any event is the key to surviving!
A wound up radio - food for days along with water - besides a head for the hills bag. Does that sound extreme in preparations? To me - No - being prepared is smart - especially when there is a history of Huge Quakes there causing Tsunamis. Also Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are overdue for a Large Quake.
Information from http://www.quakecentralforecasting.com/lowellsblog.html
I get his daily emails of quake forecasting - his email address is: eqforecasts@gmail.com
You can sign up for Free Daily Quake forecast - he discusses all aspects of quakes - Excellent information!
Here is a part of his email from today:
EARTHQUAKE SUMMARY FOR AUGUST 13, 2009
A second earthquake of M 4.7-4.9 hit in the region of Puerto Rico today following a similar event yesterday. NEIC reported this earthquake was felt within about 150 km of the epicenter with intensity II-III. Reports came from Puerto Rico at Morovis, Vega Alta, Humacao and Guaynabo, P.R. Today's event began a strong sequence including
at least 17 aftershocks of M>3 suggesting a strong accumulation of stress in the area which could lead to a major event in the near future. In recent months earthquakes in this area have become more common and aftershock sequences have been very energetic. This is often considered an activation stage which commonly precedes major earthquakes. Such an activation phase may also be underway in the Tokai area near Tokyo in which three major earthquakes have occurred this week.
We emphasized the potential for a major event in Puerto Rico in yesterday's
report as follows:
"A moderate earthquake of M 4.7 in Puerto Rico was the strongest in the U.S. and possessions today. NEIC reported this earthquake was felt in the Sint Eustatius region of the Netherlands Antilles at Golden Rock and Oranjestad with intensity II-III. The first major hurricane of the new season has formed off Africa and is moving across the Atlantic. These hurricanes often trigger additional seismicity in the Leeward and Windward Islands of the Caribbean but seismicity in Puerto Rico is more directly affected by storms forming in the Caribbean and moving to the east into the Atlantic.
Puerto Rico is well past due for a great earthquake and statistics show this is
most likely to occur during hurricane season after a close encounter with a major hurricane. A strong tsunami from such an event is a real possibility."
(August 13, 2009)
Information on the History of Puerto Rico Earthquakes and Tsunamis - from link:
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/regional/world/puerto_rico/puerto_rico_history.php
Four strong earthquakes have affected Puerto Rico since the beginning of its colonization. The most recent of these occurred on October 11, 1918. The epicenter was located northwest of Aguadilla in the Mona Canyon (between Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic). This earthquake had an approximate magnitude of 7.5 on the Richter scale and was accompanied by a tsunami ("tidal" wave) which got up to 6 meters (19.5 feet) high. Damage was concentrated in the western area of the Island because this was the closest zone to the earthquake.
The earthquake killed about 116 people and caused more than 4 million dollars of
damage. Numerous houses, factories, public buildings, chimneys, bridges and
other structures suffered severe damage.
On November 18, 1867, 20 days after the Island was devastated by Hurricane San Narciso, a strong earthquake occurred with an approximate magnitude of 7.5 on the Richter Scale. The epicenter was located in the Anegada Passage, between Puerto Rico and St. Croix, Virgin Islands. The earthquake produced a tsunami that ran inland almost 150 meters (490 feet) in the low parts of the coast of Yabucoa. This quake caused damage in numerous buildings on the Island, especially in the eastern zone.
Possibly the strongest earthquake that has affected Puerto Rico since the beginning of colonization occurred on May 2, 1787. This was felt strongly throughout the
Island and may have been as large as magnitude 8.0 on the Richter Scale. Its
epicenter was possibly to the north, in the Puerto Rico Trench. The quake was
felt very strongly all across the Island. It demolished the Arecibo church along
with the El Rosario and La Concepcion monasteries and damaged the churches at
Bayamon, Toa Baja and Mayaguez. It also caused considerable damage to the
castles of San Felipe del Morro and San Cristobal, breaking cisterns, walls and
guard houses.
Seeing the history of the quakes at the Puerto Rico trench - you can now see, Tsunamis do occur with them.Puerto Rico used to get around 300 quakes a year - yet in one weeks time they have had almost 1/3 of that amount - (now 104 showing) in One weeks time.
Doesn't that prove that something is UP and Not normal there? Please if you know of people in the area - it does not hurt to have food, water and other emergency supplies ready.
UPDATE: AUG 15TH 10:03 AM EST
Here are some other, very good links from experts regarding Puerto Rico and the Earthquakes there:
The one below was written in 2005 - but it is about the history and expectations of a large quake on the Trench.
http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=9779&tid=282&cid=2430&ct=162&print=this
This link is the story of the Large quake that hit Puerto Rico in 1918 and the aftermaths with pictures of it, in PDF form.
http://poseidon.uprm.edu/public/The-Earthquake-of-the-Century.pdf
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